On April 15, diverging narratives defined the U.S. economic landscape. While the White House projected confidence, asserting the nation is not heading into a recession, consumer sentiment told a more cautious tale.

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey, released Monday, revealed growing concerns in March about inflation, job security, and market stability. This reflects a broader trend of waning consumer confidence, even as officials in Washington maintain an upbeat tone.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said on Fox Business that the U.S. will “100% not” fall into recession in 2025. He added that more than ten countries had made “amazing” trade offers to the U.S., justifying President Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy.

Markets responded with modest gains Monday as traders digested news of a last-minute tariff exemption for electronics. The S&P 500 gained 0.79%, the Dow added 0.78%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.64%.

Despite this relief, volatility remains elevated, with analysts like those at Morgan Stanley warning, “Investors should prepare to be fooled again.” The firm cautioned that tariff reversals may not be lasting, and the administration could tighten trade measures again at any time.

Adding to uncertainty, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he believes the inflation impact of Trump’s tariffs will be “transitory.” Although the term backfired in 2021, Waller defended its use as a valid economic concept for short-term shocks.

Meanwhile, 0DTE (zero-day-to-expiration) options trading is surging, up 23% this year, according to JPMorgan. UBS analysts attribute increased intraday swings to these short-term derivatives, complicating traditional trading strategies.

On the supply chain front, Trump’s promise of U.S. manufacturing revival is being challenged. A new CNBC Supply Chain Survey revealed that 74% of companies won’t reshore production, citing high costs and a lack of skilled labor. Many firms are eyeing low-tariff alternatives abroad instead.

Tech giant Nvidia announced a massive domestic expansion, planning $500 billion in AI infrastructure spending, including chip production in Phoenix and AI supercomputer plants in Texas. This marks a rare and ambitious “Made in USA” shift, cheered by industry watchers.

Overall, the U.S. economy is at a crossroads. While the White House continues to deliver a positive message, consumers and investors remain more skeptical, awaiting clearer signals from data and policy in the weeks to come.